Will House Prices Drop in Quebec?

In the third quarter of 2026, the median price of a single-family home rose 2% in Quebec as a whole, just as it did in the Montreal metropolitan area, while sales fell and supply climbed 17% to 20%. Nobody knows what comes next. CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation) and APCIQ (the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers) publish dated forecasts, and both revised theirs during the year. Here are the data, those forecasts, the signals that come before a decline and what waiting actually costs.

Did house prices drop in Q3 2026?

Not at the median. According to APCIQ’s October 14, 2026 release, the median price in Quebec reached $500,000 for single-family homes (+2%), $400,000 for condos (stable) and $699,000 for plexes (+8%). In the Montreal census metropolitan area (CMA): $645,500 (+2%), $435,000 (+2%) and $860,500 (+3%). Sales in the CMA, on the other hand, fell 12%, a fourth consecutive quarterly decline.

Same quarter, territory by territory:

Source: Centris real estate statistics for Laval, the Island of Montreal, Montreal (South Shore), Le Vieux-Longueuil, the Laurentians and Lanaudière, July to September 2026, median prices and change over one year.

None of the 18 cells shows a decline, and five are at 0%. The plateau mainly affects condos (Island of Montreal, Laurentians, Lanaudière) and single-family homes on the South Shore. The 11% increase for plexes in Lanaudière rests on 61 sales.

Declines do exist elsewhere in Quebec. In the Gatineau CMA, according to APCIQ, the median price of single-family homes fell 3% and that of condos fell 5%.

Median price, average price, index: why the figures diverge

The median follows sales, not houses. It is the middle price of the properties sold during the period. If more large houses sell in a given quarter, the median rises without any house having gained value. APCIQ says as much in the definitions of its barometer: the change in the median price between two periods “does not necessarily reflect the change in value of all the properties in a Sector.”

Three periods, two directions. On the Island of Montreal, the single-family median was $779,000 in September 2026, 4% less than a year earlier, according to APCIQ’s monthly statistics. For the quarter, its barometer gives $811,000 (+2%; the Centris page shows $812,000). From January to September: $820,000 (+4%). A headline about September alone would have announced a decline.

CMHC’s average price is a different measure. CMHC’s forecasts for the Montreal CMA cover an average resale price, all categories combined: $651,873 in 2025. An average that mixes condos and houses falls if the share of condos sold increases, even when no price moves at all. It therefore cannot be compared with a single-family median.

A constant-quality index would track comparable properties. Neither the APCIQ barometer nor the CMHC Housing Market Outlook reports consulted here publish one for Montreal or Laval. Before concluding that prices are falling, check the measure, the period and the number of sales.

What CMHC and APCIQ forecast, and what a forecast is worth

Two organizations, four editions in 2026:

Sources: APCIQ releases of January 27 and July 14, 2026; CMHC’s 2026 Housing Market Outlook and its summer 2026 update.

Beyond 2026, CMHC publishes two scenarios. In its baseline scenario, the average price in the Montreal CMA rises to $685,000 in 2027 and to $692,000 in 2028. In its “alternative scenario,” built on inflation that would stay high or on heightened trade tensions, it falls to $669,100 in 2027 and to $665,900 in 2028, below the level forecast for 2026. For Quebec, the July update forecasts “modest price increases”; in February, CMHC wrote: “Starting in 2027, prices should stabilize,” except in the Quebec City area.

APCIQ, on October 14, 2026: “In Quebec, demand is decreasing, but this is not enough to bring about a widespread decline in prices.” That is the Association’s analysis, not a measurement.

What a forecast is worth. After nine months, the single-family median in the CMA stands at $645,000 (+4%), the figure forecast in January. Quebec’s, $514,000 (+5%), remains below the $520,200 announced, but in line with the pace of the July revision. Sales tracked the forecast less closely: -8% in the CMA, against -3% forecast. CMHC dates its figures: information available as of January 15, then as of June 23, 2026. A forecast is a dated scenario, not a promise, and I am not adding one of my own.

The signals that come before a drop in house prices

In Gatineau, the drop in medians came after four consecutive quarters of falling sales and five quarters of rising supply: 2,256 properties listed in Q3 2026, 42% more than a year earlier. Condos there are now in a balanced market, according to APCIQ. The same indicators can be followed for Montreal:

The threshold to watch. APCIQ classifies a market as favouring sellers below 8 months of inventory, balanced from 8 to 10, and favouring buyers beyond 10. Its definitions add that in a balanced market, “price growth is generally moderate.” In the CMA, every single-family price range was still below 8 months in Q3 2026.

What no signal tells you. Neither the timing nor the size of a decline. Months of inventory cover the last 12 months: they describe the recent past.

A drop for whom: condos, single-family homes, plexes and sectors

A general decline is not the same as a decline in one segment, and the segments are loosening at uneven speeds.

Condos are furthest along. According to APCIQ, condo conditions on the Island of Montreal sit “on the border between a balanced market and a buyer’s advantage,” and the downtown perimeter as well as the southwest sector are “already in surplus.” Laval is getting closer to the balance thresholds; the North Shore and the South Shore remain in sellers’ favour. The Laval detail is in the Laval real estate market by sector.

The high end loosens before the entry level. In the CMA, single-family homes from $320,000 to $480,000 had 2.4 months of inventory, and those at $960,000 and up had 7.6 months. On the island, at $1,220,000 and up: 9.1 months, a balanced market. In Vaudreuil-Soulanges, at $940,000 and up: 11.2 months, in buyers’ favour. This segment is covered in detail in the luxury market in Montreal and Laval.

Plexes are still rising: +8% in Quebec and +3% in the CMA for the quarter.

Small markets move sharply, on few sales. In the Laurentians, the condo median shows -38% in Mont-Tremblant, on 50 sales, and the single-family median -7% in Sainte-Agathe-des-Monts, on 81 sales. APCIQ asks that these statistics be interpreted “with caution, particularly when the number of transactions is low.”

Waiting for a drop: the math for a buyer and for a seller

For a buyer, a drop has to be weighed against what waiting costs. In the CMA, one percentage point on the single-family median, $645,500, is worth $6,455; on the condo median, $435,000, it is worth $4,350. On the other side of the scale, a year of average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the CMA, $1,346 a month according to CMHC’s October 2025 survey, comes to $16,152. The two amounts do not offset each other directly: an owner also pays interest, taxes and maintenance. The rent vs. buy calculator puts those items side by side with your own figures, and the rent-or-buy calculation in Greater Montreal explains which ones to compare.

The rate matters too. CMHC forecasts a posted 5-year fixed rate averaging 5.2% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027, which is also a forecast. As of October 21, 2026, the policy rate is 2.25%; the Bank of Canada’s next announcement is scheduled for October 28. For your own rate, see a mortgage broker.

For a seller who buys again, the gap is what counts. Selling a condo at the CMA median price, $435,000, to buy a single-family home at $645,500 means a gap of $210,500. A uniform 5% drop, purely a calculation assumption, would bring that gap down to $199,975; a uniform 5% rise would push it to $221,025. But segments do not move together, as we have seen. For a seller who is not buying again, the price affects the full amount, and every month of waiting adds taxes, interest and insurance.

Frequently asked questions

Will house prices drop in Quebec in 2027? No source says so with certainty. For the Montreal CMA, CMHC forecasts an average price of $685,000 in 2027 in its baseline scenario, and $669,100 in its alternative scenario. As of October 21, 2026, no APCIQ forecast for 2027 appears on its website.

Will house prices in Quebec keep going up? In Q3 2026, they are still rising, slowly: +2% for the single-family median. APCIQ considers the drop in demand insufficient for a widespread decline; CMHC forecasts modest increases in Quebec. These are forecasts.

Are real estate prices dropping in Montreal? It depends on the measure. On the island, the single-family median fell 4% in September, but it is up 2% for the quarter. For condos, APCIQ places downtown and the southwest in surplus.

Should I wait for a drop before buying? Do the math with your own figures: your rent, the rate you are offered, the category and the sector you are targeting. On a single-family home at the CMA median price, one point of decline is worth $6,455.

To go further, read what the data say about a Montreal housing crash and the Montreal real estate market by borough.

Want to know how prices are moving in your sector and for your type of property? I will show you the recent sales and listings in your neighbourhood, with their dates. Write to me. Service in French, English and Arabic.

Georges Matar

Residential Real Estate Broker · RE/MAX DU CARTIER INC.

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