Rent Increase 2027 in Quebec: How the TAL Calculates It

The 2027 rent increase percentage does not exist yet. The Tribunal administratif du logement (TAL, Quebec’s rental board) will make it public in January 2027, once the December consumer price index (CPI) is known. Two of the three figures behind it are already published, however, and the formula is written into a regulation. Here is the calculation, what it would give depending on 2026 inflation, and the deadlines that matter for a lease renewed on July 1, 2027.

When the TAL will publish the 2027 rent increase percentage

In January, after the December CPI. According to the TAL, the base percentage is published every year in January, when Statistics Canada releases the last data needed. Statistics Canada’s official schedule sets the release of the December 2026 CPI for January 18, 2027. In 2026, the TAL released its percentages on Monday, January 19.

The government publishes it too. Since the amendment adopted in 2025, section 4.2 of the Règlement sur les critères de fixation de loyer (the regulation on rent-setting criteria) requires the minister responsible for the TAL to inform the public of the result of the calculation in the Gazette officielle du Québec (the province’s official journal).

Which leases. The 2026 percentage, 3.1%, covers leases that begin between April 2, 2026 and April 1, 2027. Under the Regulation’s definition of the reference period, the 2027 percentage will cover leases that begin between April 2, 2027 and April 1, 2028, and therefore the big wave of July 1, 2027 renewals.

The calculation: three years of inflation in Quebec

Section 3.1 of the Regulation sets the formula. The base percentage is the average of three annual changes in the non-seasonally adjusted CPI for Quebec as a whole, established by Statistics Canada. For a lease that ends between April 1 and December 31, the reference period is the calendar year preceding the end of the lease. A lease that ends on June 30, 2027 therefore has 2026 as its reference period, and the formula goes back to 2025 and 2024.

The 2026 calculation checks out: (4.5 + 2.3 + 2.4) ÷ 3 gives 3.07%, or 3.1% once rounded. The official formula works on the averages of the index itself, not on rounded percentages, hence a possible gap of one tenth.

What changed in 2026. For a notice of modification given before January 1, 2026, the TAL examined the building’s expenses item by item: electricity, gas, heating oil, maintenance, management, net income, each with its own percentage. For a notice given since then, the method comes down to a few criteria: the base percentage, taxes, insurance, capital expenditures and new services. The effects on a building’s value are detailed in what rent setting allows since 2026.

2027 rent increase: what 2026 inflation would give

Quebec’s average inflation for 2026 will only be known in January. The published markers: a 3.1% year-over-year increase in Quebec’s CPI in September 2026, and an average of 3.1% over the first eight months according to the Ministère des Finances du Québec (Quebec’s finance ministry), which projected 3.0% for the full year in its pre-election report of August 17, 2026.

Calculation: (2.3 + 2.4 + 2026 inflation) ÷ 3, to the nearest tenth.

A likely drop compared with 2026. The year 2023, at 4.5%, falls out of the average. For the 2027 percentage to equal the 2026 one, average inflation in 2026 would have to reach about 4.6%, whereas it was 3.1% over the first eight months. This is not a TAL forecast: it is the arithmetic of its formula.

In dollars, for hypothetical rents:

The base percentage is not a cap

Agreement comes first. At renewal, the landlord is free to ask for the increase they consider fair and reasonable, and both parties can agree on another figure. The TAL’s percentages apply when the Tribunal sets the rent, after a refusal.

Taxes and insurance are added, in part. Section 4 of the Regulation uses the change in municipal taxes between the reference period and the following year, so between 2026 and 2027 for a July 1, 2027 lease. For school taxes and fire and liability insurance premiums, it compares the previous year with the reference period, that is 2025 and 2026. Only the part of the increase that exceeds the base percentage is added, applied to the monthly amount attributable to the dwelling. Example: $150 a month in municipal taxes attributable to the dwelling, a 5% increase and a base of 2.6%: the addition is 2.4% of $150, or $3.60 a month.

Major work counts at 5%. Section 3 applies a fixed 5% rate to capital expenditures made during the reference period, according to the share attributable to the dwelling, and only to the dwellings that benefit from them. A $30,000 roof on a triplex where one unit accounts for a third of the revenue gives $10,000 attributable to that unit, and 5% of that amount, or $500 a year, about $41.67 a month.

Poor maintenance reduces the rent. Section 8 allows the Tribunal to reduce the rent if the landlord has not maintained the quality of services during the previous 12 months.

Deadlines for a lease renewed on July 1, 2027

The calendar trap. The notice window opens in January, before the TAL publishes its percentage, expected after the January 18 CPI release. A notice may state the new rent in dollars, the increase in dollars or a percentage of the current rent. Nothing requires you to wait for the January figure, but a notice sent before it cannot refer to it.

One notice per tenant, with proof of receipt. The TAL recommends a separate notice to each signatory of the lease, given by a means that leaves proof of receipt: registered mail, hand delivery against an acknowledgment of receipt, or another method. The notice must reproduce the mandatory text of the Règlement sur le contenu obligatoire de l’avis de modification du bail d’un logement (the regulation on the mandatory content of a notice of lease modification).

Tenant: responding to a rent increase notice

Three responses are possible: accept, refuse and stay, or leave at the end of the lease. Refusing does not mean leaving: the right to maintain occupancy lets you stay, and it is up to the landlord to apply to the Tribunal. The TAL offers an online calculation tool, based on the Regulation’s criteria, to check whether a proposed increase departs from them.

Two exceptions. Article 1955 of the Civil Code denies recourse to the Tribunal for a dwelling in a housing cooperative and for one in a building built or converted to residential use five years ago or less. In that case, refusing the increase means leaving the dwelling at the end of the lease, under article 1945. The restriction only applies if it appears in the lease. According to the TAL, for a lease entered into after February 20, 2024 in a building ready for use after that date, the lease must also indicate the maximum rent the landlord may impose during those five years.

If the increase has you comparing your rent with buying, the rent or buy calculator puts the two budgets side by side.

Plex owner or buyer: what 2027 changes

July 1 rents are decided before spring. A buyer who signs for a plex in April 2027 is buying leases whose notices have already gone out, or whose window has closed. Copies of the notices, the responses and any pending application to the TAL are among the documents to ask for; the full list is in the checks before buying a triplex in Laval.

The 2026 figure is not a basis for projections. Projecting a building’s income at 3.1% because that was the 2026 percentage would overestimate the increase if the scenarios above are confirmed.

This winter’s municipal budgets matter. The change in municipal taxes between 2026 and 2027 goes into the calculation of a rent set for July 1, 2027. The 2027 tax bills are therefore part of the file of an owner who plans an application to set the rent.

I am a real estate broker, not a lawyer: for a case before the Tribunal, the TAL itself, a lawyer or a legal information organization can answer for your situation.

Frequently asked questions

What will the rent increase percentage be in 2027? No one knows before January 2027. The formula averages the increases in Quebec’s CPI for 2024, 2025 and 2026. With 3.0% inflation in 2026, as the Ministère des Finances projects, it would give about 2.6%.

Can the landlord ask for more than the TAL percentage? Yes, they can propose the amount they consider fair. The tenant can refuse and stay. If the landlord then applies to the Tribunal, the rent is set according to the Regulation’s criteria: base percentage, taxes, insurance, major work.

When should I receive the notice if my lease ends on June 30, 2027? Between 3 and 6 months before the end of the lease, so from January to late March 2027. You then have one month after receiving it to refuse or announce that you are leaving.

My building is less than five years old: can the TAL set my rent? No, if the lease includes the article 1955 restriction. For a lease entered into after February 20, 2024 in a building ready after that date, it must also indicate the maximum rent for the first five years. Without the required mention, the restriction cannot be applied against you.

To go further, read Quebec’s inflation rate in 2027 and what changes for homeowners in 2027.

Do you own a plex in Laval or Montreal, or are you thinking of buying one before July 1? Write to me. The leases and notices in place are part of what we check before the offer. Service in French, English and Arabic.

Georges Matar

Residential Real Estate Broker · RE/MAX DU CARTIER INC.

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