Market Analysis

Montreal and Laval Real Estate Market

By Georges Matar · May 29, 2026 · 7 min read

The question comes up every week: is it a good time to buy or sell in Montreal? The answer does not come from a prediction, a headline or what the market did last year. It comes from dated data, published by named organizations, and read at the right geographic level.

Real estate indicators are best analyzed the same way research data is analyzed: methodically, without confirmation bias, and with appropriate humility about what the numbers can and cannot tell us.

Here is what those indicators actually show, with their date and their source.

The 5 Indicators That Matter

1. The Absorption Rate This is the ratio of properties sold versus active listings, expressed as a percentage. Above 25%: seller’s market. Between 15% and 25%: balanced. Below 15%: buyer’s market. This rate varies a great deal by property type and by sector: a regional average hides very different realities.

2. Days on Market How long does the average property take to sell? A drop in this number signals increasing demand. A rise signals the market is slowing.

3. Sold-to-List Price Ratio Are properties selling above, at, or below their asking price? This ratio tells you immediately whether you are in a negotiation market or a competition market.

4. Bank of Canada Rate Decisions The policy rate directly influences variable mortgage rates. It influences fixed rates indirectly through the bond market.

5. Demographic Data The Institut de la statistique du Québec publishes an annual demographic review of Quebec, and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada publishes the immigration levels plan. Household formation creates demand for housing, but population can also decline: that is what happened in Quebec in 2025, as shown below.

What the August 2026 Data Shows

The recent cycle first followed interest rates. The Bank of Canada began raising its policy rate on March 2, 2022, then began lowering it on June 5, 2024. The rate has been 2.25% since October 29, 2025, a level maintained at the September 2, 2026 announcement. The next announcement is scheduled for October 28, 2026.

For the Montreal census metropolitan area (CMA), APCIQ statistics drawn from the Centris system and released on September 4, 2026 give the following for August 2026:

Sales: 2,853, down 13% year over year.
Supply: 20,128 active listings, up 18%, and 5,874 new listings, up 7%.
Median prices: $650,000 for single-family homes, up 3%, $437,250 for condominiums, up 4%, and $856,000 for plexes, up 2%.
Average days on market: 42 days for single-family homes, 1 day more than a year earlier, 62 days for condominiums, 12 days more, and 52 days for plexes, 4 days fewer.

APCIQ describes these conditions itself in its release: most residential markets in the region “continue to favour sellers”, while condominiums show “a more advanced adjustment”, with the island of Montreal “at the boundary between a balanced market and a buyer’s market” (translated from the French release). The growth in supply is now strongest on the South Shore (+28%) and the North Shore (+26%).

Fewer sales, more supply, and median prices still up year over year: sales and prices are two separate series. A detailed reading of these figures is in talking about a Montreal housing crash.

What Headlines Leave Out

A headline describes one month, one series and one territory. Three habits avoid most misreadings:

A drop in sales is not a drop in prices. In August 2026, in the Montreal CMA, sales fell 13% while all three median prices rose.
A year-over-year change depends on the reference month. A decline measured after an exceptional month does not mean the same thing as a decline measured after an ordinary one.
A provincial figure does not describe your sector. In the same month, APCIQ publishes statistics for Quebec, for the CMA, for the island of Montreal and for Laval, and they do not move together.

Media incentives favour dramatic headlines. Nuance is essential, because your financial decisions deserve better than a headline.

The Laval Market, in Dated Figures

Laval has its own statistics, and they do not always follow the island’s:

Activity (APCIQ, August 2026): 255 sales, down 20% year over year, and 1,514 active listings, up 10%.
Median prices (APCIQ, August 2026): $642,750 for single-family homes and $449,000 for condominiums, compared with $820,000 and $475,000 on the island of Montreal in the same month. A gap between medians does not compare equivalent properties: size, age and lot differ from one territory to another. For plexes, the number of transactions in Laval in August 2026 was too small for APCIQ to publish a median price.
Rental housing (CMHC): according to the Rental Market Report released on December 11, 2025, based on the October 2025 survey, the vacancy rate for private apartments was 3.4% in Laval, up from 2.4% a year earlier, and 2.9% in the Montreal CMA, up from 2.1%. CMHC indicates that the increase is statistically significant for the CMA but not for Laval. The average rent in Laval was $1,347, an estimated 8.0% increase year over year in the same buildings.
Transit: it is verified station by station, from the metro to the REM. The sector-by-sector detail is in the guide to buying in Laval.

Three Common Arguments, Checked Against the Data

It is often said that three factors would stop prices from falling in Montreal and Laval. Here is what public data says about each one.

“Demographic demand is guaranteed.” The Institut de la statistique du Québec published its review of 2025 on May 13, 2026: according to provisional data, Quebec’s population stood at 9.03 million on January 1, 2026, down 9,600 people over the year. At the federal level, IRCC’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets the permanent resident admissions target at 380,000 for 2026, and at 380,000 for 2027 and for 2028 as notional targets. Under the Canada-Quebec Accord, Quebec selects its own economic immigrants and publishes its own plan. None of this data says what prices will do.

“Supply is locked.” The argument is about buildable land. The supply of properties for sale, on the other hand, is measured every month: in the Montreal CMA, active listings rose 18% between August 2025 and August 2026, according to APCIQ.

“Construction costs put a floor under prices.” Statistics Canada publishes a building construction price index every quarter, by metropolitan area. According to its July 24, 2026 release, residential building construction costs in Montreal rose 2.5% in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter. That index measures what contractors charge to build new, not the price at which an existing property resells.

What the Data Does Not Let You Say

None of these series projects prices for the next twelve months. A decline, stability or an increase all remain possible, and no official table says which one will come. Anyone announcing a specific percentage decline or increase for next year is giving you an opinion, not data. Brokers included.

What can be monitored, on the other hand, has a source and a publication date:

sales, listings, median prices and days on market, by category and by sector: APCIQ, every month;
the policy rate: Bank of Canada, at each scheduled announcement;
vacancy rates and rents: CMHC, once a year, based on the October survey;
population: ISQ, in its annual demographic review;
construction costs: Statistics Canada, every quarter.

The Right Question to Ask

The question “is it a good time to buy?” is the wrong question.

The right questions are:

Is your financial situation stable?
Do you have your down payment, plus closing costs: transfer duties, notary, inspection, moving? The closing costs calculator adds them up.
Do you plan to stay long enough to spread those entry costs? The rent vs. buy calculator puts them in the balance.
Are the properties you are looking at priced fairly based on recent comparable sales?

If the answer to all four is yes, your own situation weighs more in the decision than market timing.

A regular market analysis of the greater Montreal and Laval real estate market is published here. Get in touch to read the recent data for your sector and your property category together.