Finance

What Will Quebec's Inflation Rate Be in 2027?

By Georges Matar · October 21, 2026 · 8 min read

Nobody knows what Quebec’s inflation rate will be in 2027. Two public bodies publish a dated projection for it, and Statistics Canada measures today’s rate every month: 3.1% year over year in September 2026. Here are the three figures not to mix up, the measured one, the projected one and the one that affects your property, along with the rule that now ties inflation to rent.

Quebec’s inflation rate: the latest official figure

On October 19, 2026, Statistics Canada released the consumer price index (CPI) for September 2026. In Quebec, prices rose 3.1% over one year, the same as in August. In the Montreal census metropolitan area (CMA), they rose 3.0%. In Canada, 3.1%. The tables of the Institut de la statistique du Québec (Quebec’s statistics institute) publish no CPI specific to Laval: the closest series is the one for the Montreal CMA.

Gasoline weighs heavily. In Quebec, it costs 22.8% more than in September 2025. Excluding gasoline, the Quebec CPI is up 2.4%; excluding food and energy, 2.2%.

The trend. On an annual average basis, Quebec’s CPI rose 4.5% in 2023, 2.3% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025. For the first eight months of 2026, the Ministère des Finances du Québec (Quebec’s finance ministry) reports an average of 3.1%, which it attributes in particular to energy prices. The October CPI is scheduled for Monday, November 16, 2026.

The housing component of the CPI

Housing is what sets Quebec apart from the rest of the country. 12-month change, September 2026:

Component	Quebec	Montreal CMA	Canada
All-items	3.1%	3.0%	3.1%
Shelter	3.2%	2.9%	1.8%
Rented accommodation	3.2%	2.6%	2.7%
Owned accommodation	2.7%	2.9%	0.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, CPI not seasonally adjusted, reproduced by the Institut de la statistique du Québec in its table updated on October 19, 2026.

Homeowners: 2.7% in Quebec, 0.6% in Canada. The all-items CPI is identical, but the cost of owned accommodation is rising more than four times faster in Quebec.

The breakdown published for Canada. Statistics Canada comments on several shelter sub-indexes at the national level. Mortgage interest cost is down 0.2% over one year. Homeowners’ home and mortgage insurance is up 4.9%, homeowners’ maintenance and repairs 1.2%, rent 2.8%, and fuel oil and other fuels 57.8%.

Quebec’s inflation rate in 2027: the official projections

Two bodies publish a projection for 2027. They are dated scenarios built on assumptions, not promises.

Body and document	Date	2026	2027	2028	Territory
Ministère des Finances du Québec, Pre-election Report	August 17, 2026	3.0%	2.1%	2.0%	Quebec
Bank of Canada, Monetary Policy Report	July 15, 2026	2.5%	2.0%	2.1%	Canada

Annual average increase in the CPI.

Quebec: 2.1% in 2027. The Ministère des Finances projects 3.0% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027, then 2.0% from 2028 to 2030. It points in particular to lower oil prices and slower growth in housing prices. Its recession scenario gives 1.7% in 2027. As the law requires, the Auditor General of Quebec (Vérificateur général du Québec) accompanies this report with a report on the plausibility of the forecasts.

Canada: 2.0% in 2027. In July, the Bank of Canada expected Canadian inflation “to settle at around 2½% in the second half of 2026, then return to the 2% target in early 2027,” based on oil futures as of July 9, 2026. The figures measured in Canada since then are higher: 3.0% in July and in August, 3.1% in September, compared with the 2.5% projected for the third quarter.

A projection gets replaced. The Bank will present its next Report on October 28, 2026, then four more in 2027. It does not project Quebec’s inflation: among the official sources consulted, only the Ministère des Finances does.

Inflation and mortgage rates: the link through the 2% target

The Bank of Canada targets inflation of 2%, the midpoint of a range of 1% to 3%, measured by the 12-month increase in Canada’s total CPI. Its policy rate, it writes, targets neither housing nor specific regions. The framework that sets this target is renewed every five years with the federal government; the Bank states that it will be renewed in 2026.

At 3.1% in September, Canada’s CPI is above the top of the range. The core inflation measures the Bank monitors remain lower: 1.8% for CPI-trim, 1.9% for CPI-median.

As of October 21, 2026, the policy rate is 2.25%, unchanged since October 29, 2025. When it held the rate on September 2, the Bank wrote that “upside risks around inflation have increased,” and that its Governing Council “stands ready to adjust monetary policy as needed.”

The mechanism, according to the Bank: it can raise its rate to keep inflation from going above the target, and its decisions move the prime rate, the basis for variable-rate loans. Fixed rates also depend on financial markets, including foreign ones. The full path is laid out in what connects the Bank of Canada to your payment.

If your renewal is coming up, the mortgage calculator recalculates your payment with the rate your lender is offering. The choice of product is made with your lender or with a mortgage broker.

What inflation changes in a homeowner’s costs

Heating. In Quebec, the CPI for fuel oil is up 42.0% over one year, natural gas 1.6% and electricity 2.4%. A house still heated with fuel oil absorbs an increase out of all proportion to the all-items CPI.

Home insurance. The 4.9% increase is a Canadian average. Your premium depends on the insurer, your file and the house: the insurer explains how it is calculated.

Renovation work. For major projects, the public indicator is the building construction price index. In the second quarter of 2026, residential construction costs rose 2.5% in one quarter in Montreal, the second-largest increase among the 15 CMAs tracked, after Quebec City (2.6%), according to the Statistics Canada release of July 24, 2026. In it, Quebec builders cite the annual wage increases of unionized construction workers.

One limitation: this index measures the price a contractor asks for a new building, excluding land and sales taxes, not the price of a renovation. No official source consulted publishes a renovation index for Montreal. Your reserve is planned component by component, as detailed in the maintenance calendar for a house in Quebec.

Property taxes. They follow from your municipal assessment and the rate set by your city. The figure that counts is the one on your tax bill, not a CPI average.

Landlords: the CPI sets the TAL’s base percentage

Since January 1, 2026, inflation feeds directly into rent setting. The Regulation respecting the criteria for the fixing of rent (Règlement sur les critères de fixation de loyer), as amended by Order in Council 1455-2025, calculates the base percentage as the average of the last three annual changes in the Quebec CPI established by Statistics Canada. The method applies to applications where the notice of modification of the lease was given on or after that date.

In 2026: 3.1%. That is the base percentage the Tribunal administratif du logement (TAL, Quebec’s rental board) made public on January 19, 2026, for a lease beginning between April 2, 2026 and April 1, 2027. Allowing for rounding, it matches the average of the Quebec CPI increases for 2023, 2024 and 2025: (4.5 + 2.3 + 2.4) ÷ 3.

For 2027, two of the three years are known. For a lease ending between April 1 and December 31, 2027, the reference period is 2026. The calculation will use 2024 (2.3%), 2025 (2.4%) and 2026, which will be known once the December CPI is out. As an illustration, the Ministère des Finances projection of 3.0% would give about 2.6%. Only the figure the TAL makes public will be authoritative.

Taxes and insurance: only the portion above the base percentage is added. Section 4 of the Regulation subtracts the base percentage from the increase in property taxes and in fire and liability insurance premiums. A fictitious example: municipal taxes up 5%, with a base percentage of 3.1%, count for only 1.9%, applied to the monthly amount of the taxes. Capital expenditures made during the reference period are recognized at 5%.

An agreement is still possible. The TAL points out that the landlord and the tenant are free to come to an agreement. Without one, the landlord has one month from the tenant’s reply to apply for the fixing of the rent; otherwise, the lease is renewed on the same conditions. Special rules apply to a building constructed five years ago or less. Notices and deadlines: managing a rental property in Montreal and Laval.

Frequently asked questions

What is Quebec’s inflation rate right now? 3.1% over 12 months in September 2026, and 3.0% in the Montreal CMA. The October figure is scheduled for November 16, 2026.

What will Quebec’s inflation rate be in 2027? No organization knows. The Ministère des Finances du Québec projects 2.1%, and 1.7% in its recession scenario. The Bank of Canada projects 2.0% for Canada and will present a new projection on October 28, 2026.

Has the TAL published the rent increase percentage for 2027? No. The 2027 percentage will average the CPI increases of 2024, 2025 and 2026, and the 2026 increase is not yet known. The base percentage is not a cap: taxes, insurance and work are added according to the Regulation, and an agreement is still possible.

Why are housing costs rising faster in Quebec than in Canada? The data show the gap, 3.2% versus 1.8% in September 2026, without giving the cause. The Ministère des Finances is counting on slower growth in housing prices in 2027: that is a projection assumption, not a measurement.

To go further, read how property taxes are calculated in Montreal and Laval and the hidden costs of homeownership in Quebec.

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