Market Analysis

Is There a Housing Bubble in Quebec?

By Georges Matar · October 21, 2026 · 8 min read

The word “bubble” comes back every time house prices seem to be running faster than wages. Yet none of the public bodies consulted sets an official bubble threshold. What does exist is a set of measurable series. Here is where Quebec, Montreal and Laval stand on each of them, in the fall of 2026, and what those series do not allow anyone to settle.

Housing bubble in Quebec: five measurable criteria

Here, a bubble means prices that drift away from what incomes, rents and credit can support, carried by the expectation of further increases.

CMHC’s framework. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) published a Housing Market Assessment every quarter, which took four factors into account: overheating, acceleration in price growth, overvaluation and overbuilding. It has discontinued that report. Its page, dated March 8, 2022, points to earlier editions: there is no longer a recent official rating for Montreal.

The Bank of Canada’s framework. Its financial stability indicators track mortgage debt service, mortgages with a high loan-to-income ratio, quick buy-and-resell transactions and expectations of rising prices.

The following criteria flow from these, plus the pace of prices: a bubble implies acceleration.

Prices and incomes: the gap in figures for Montreal and Laval

The price-to-income ratio divides the median price of properties sold by the median total household income: the result is years of gross income.

Territory	Median household income, 2020	Single-family, Q3 2026	Ratio	Condo, Q3 2026	Ratio
Province of Quebec	$72,500	$500,000	6.9	$400,000	5.5
Montreal CMA	$76,000	$645,500	8.5	$435,000	5.7
Laval	$85,000	$630,000	7.4	$440,000	5.2

Sources: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census Profile; APCIQ (the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers) through the Centris system, third quarter of 2026. Calculation: median price divided by median income. CMA: census metropolitan area.

The date gap inflates the ratio. The incomes date from 2020, the prices from summer 2026. According to the Bank of Canada, the average nominal disposable income of Canadian households rose by about 16% between 2021 and 2025. With up-to-date incomes, the ratios would be lower, by an amount that has not been quantified for Laval or Montreal. And the median income covers all households, renters included.

A high ratio is not yet a bubble. The level does not say whether the gap is widening quickly. In the third quarter of 2026, the median price of a single-family home rose 2% year over year in Quebec as in the CMA, and 5% in Laval. APCIQ describes an increase “at a generally more moderate pace than that observed in recent years.” That is the opposite of an acceleration.

Prices and rents: what CMHC data says

The second test compares the purchase price with the rent of a similar dwelling. When prices outrun rents, the buyer is mostly paying for hoped-for appreciation. The closest comparison sets the condo sold against the condo offered for rent, which CMHC measures separately.

Territory	Condo sold, Q3 2026	Condo rented, 2 bedrooms, Oct. 2025	Years of rent
Montreal CMA	$435,000	$1,826 per month	19.9
Island of Montreal	$477,500	$2,064 per month	19.3
Laval	$440,000	$1,729 per month	21.2

Sources: APCIQ, Q3 2026 barometer; CMHC, Rental Market Report 2025, table 4.1.2. The price covers all sizes, the rent two-bedroom units only.

Rents rose faster than prices. In the CMA, the average rent of a two-bedroom rented condo went from $1,724 to $1,826 between October 2024 and October 2025, about 6% more. In rental apartment buildings, CMHC puts the increase at 7.2% for a two-bedroom unit, and attributes it mainly to renewed leases. The median condo price gained 2% over one year. The periods do not overlap exactly, but the direction is clear: the price-to-rent ratio is falling, whereas it climbs during a bubble.

For your own situation, the rent or buy calculator puts rent, the mortgage payment and upfront costs side by side; the rent or buy calculation method explains what to enter.

Credit and household debt

A bubble feeds on credit. The series that follow are national, with no Quebec version in the pages consulted.

Debt. In the second quarter of 2026, Canadian households’ credit market debt represented 176.4% of their disposable income, compared with 178.6% the previous quarter, according to Statistics Canada. In its Financial Stability Report of May 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada sums it up: “Household indebtedness remains high, but below its 2022 peak.”

High-ratio loans. The Bank identifies the most vulnerable households by the share of new mortgages whose loan-to-income ratio exceeds 450%. That share was 11.9% in the second quarter of 2026. In the Bank’s former series, built on other data and discontinued in 2024, it had reached 25.1% in the first quarter of 2022. From 2023 to 2024, the two series differ by less than one point.

Payment arrears. According to the same report, about 1.3% of mortgage borrowers had an account more than 60 days past due. Credit remains heavy, but it is not running away.

Speculation and overbuilding: the data available

Quick resales. The Bank of Canada measures the share of homes resold within 12 months of their purchase. In the Montreal CMA, it was 0.89% in the second quarter of 2026, compared with a peak of 1.88% in the third quarter of 2022 and 1.64% for Canada.

Rented condos. Of the 233,535 condominium apartments counted by CMHC in the CMA in October 2025, 51,119 were offered for rent, or 21.9%, compared with 21.7% a year earlier. A finer measure is missing: the Statistics Canada study on investors, released on July 7, 2026, covers six provinces, not including Quebec.

Expectations. In the Bank of Canada’s survey of consumer expectations, respondents in Quebec expected, in the second quarter of 2026, a 5.0% increase in home prices in their area over 12 months, compared with 8.6% in the second quarter of 2021. This is not a forecast, and the Bank advises following the change in this series rather than its level.

Construction. In the CMA, 19,028 housing units were started from January to September 2026, compared with 19,331 a year earlier, according to CMHC. The rental apartment vacancy rate reached 2.9% in October 2025, compared with 2.1% in 2024; CMHC explains it by rising completions and slower demand, mainly due to the drop in the number of non-permanent residents. In September 2026, resale inventory in the CMA was 18% above its average for the last 10 years, according to APCIQ. The stock of unsold new homes is published in CMHC’s monthly table only for all of the country’s urban centres combined.

The five criteria: where they stand

Criterion	Latest data	What it shows
Prices and incomes	8.5 years of income, single-family, CMA	High level, 2020 incomes
Pace of prices	+2% year over year, single-family, CMA	No acceleration
Prices and rents	19.9 years of rent, condo, CMA	Rents rising faster than prices
Credit	176.4% of disposable income, Canada	High, below the 2022 peak
Speculation	0.89% resold within 12 months, CMA	Less than half the 2022 peak
Construction	2.9% vacancy, CMA	Rental supply rising

Two criteria are high by their level, the price-to-income ratio and household debt, but no indicator is accelerating: not prices, not credit, not quick resales. These data describe an expensive market, not the dynamics of a bubble. None of them is a forecast.

Bubble, correction or crash: why the words matter

A bubble is a state: prices detached from what supports them. A correction is a movement: a decline that brings prices back toward those supports. A crash is a sudden, rapid decline.

A correction can happen elsewhere. According to the Bank of Canada, in May 2026, the price of a typical home in Canada had fallen 20% since the 2022 peak, a decline “particularly pronounced in Ontario and British Columbia.” In Quebec, single-family homes rose 2% year over year, according to APCIQ. A headline about the Canadian correction is first and foremost about Toronto and Vancouver.

The word steers decisions. A buyer convinced that a bubble is about to burst waits for a crash; a seller who does not believe in it lists too high. Both are betting on a forecast, whereas the recent comparable sales in your area can be checked. The difference between slowing sales and falling prices is explained in detail in what the data says about a crash in Montreal.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Quebec real estate market in a bubble? By the criteria measured here, prices are high relative to incomes, but they are rising slowly, more slowly than rents. No public body has issued an official verdict since CMHC stopped its Housing Market Assessment.

Is there a housing bubble in Montreal? In the CMA, a single-family home costs 8.5 years of 2020 median income, compared with 6.9 for Quebec as a whole, but quick resales there are below the Canadian average. In its first-quarter 2020 edition, CMHC’s Housing Market Assessment rated Montreal’s overall vulnerability as “low,” while noting signs of overheating in the resale market.

Are condos more exposed than houses? In the third quarter of 2026, APCIQ places condos on the Island of Montreal “on the border between a balanced market and a buyer’s advantage.” In the CMA, a condo took 61 days on average to sell, 13 more than a year earlier, and its median price still rose 2%.

Is a housing bubble possible in 2027? None of the series cited projects 2027. They can be followed over time: APCIQ every month, the Bank of Canada’s indicators every quarter, CMHC’s rental report every year.

To go further, read the Laval real estate market by sector and the Montreal real estate market by borough.

Want to see where your area stands on these criteria, with recent sales and their dates? Write to me. Service in French, English and Arabic.