Market Analysis
When Will the Housing Crisis End in Quebec?
No public agency sets a date for the end of the housing crisis in Quebec, or even an official criterion for …
“Affordable” has an official definition in Canada, and it is calculated with three numbers: the price, the rate and household income. On Centris median prices for the third quarter of 2026, the payment on the median single-family home exceeds that threshold for a household earning the median income measured in 2020, in Laval as on the Island of Montreal. Here is the calculation city by city, with the assumptions written out, followed by three scenarios for 2027 to redo with your own figures.
What affordable means: CMHC’s 30% threshold
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) puts it in one sentence: “In Canada, housing is considered affordable if it costs less than 30% of a household’s before-tax income.” For an owner, that cost includes mortgage payments, property taxes, condo fees, electricity, fuel, water and other municipal services. The calculation below counts only the mortgage payment: it therefore underestimates the real burden.
This is not a lending rule. A lender applies its own ratios, explained in what salary you need to buy in Montreal or Laval. Going over 30% does not mean being turned down; staying under it guarantees no approval.
The threshold mainly measures households already in place. In the 2021 census, 11.9% of Laval owners spent 30% or more of their income on housing, according to Statistics Canada; in the Montreal agglomeration, 17.3% of owners and 28% of renters did, according to the City of Montreal. These ratios describe households that already have a home, whatever the date of their purchase or lease. A 2026 buyer pays this quarter’s price.
Home affordability in Quebec, city by city
The assumptions, to replace with your own. Price: the Centris median for single-family homes, July to September 2026. Down payment: 20%, which avoids the mortgage loan insurance CMHC requires below that threshold. Rate: 4.49%, the weighted average of new uninsured fixed-rate loans of 5 years or more from chartered banks in July 2026, the latest month published by the Bank of Canada. A 25-year amortization, monthly payments and interest compounded semi-annually, as in the site’s mortgage calculator, where every line can be redone. Income needed: the annual payment divided by 0.30.
The calculation, for Laval. $630,000 minus 20%: a $504,000 loan. Payment: $2,787 a month, $33,440 a year. $33,440 ÷ 0.30 = $111,468, rounded to $111,500.
| City or Centris sector | Median price | Payment | Income needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Island of Montreal | $812,000 | $3,592 | $143,700 |
| Laval | $630,000 | $2,787 | $111,500 |
| Longueuil, Vieux-Longueuil | $625,000 | $2,765 | $110,600 |
| Longueuil, Saint-Hubert | $587,500 | $2,599 | $103,900 |
| Terrebonne, Terrebonne sector | $632,500 | $2,798 | $111,900 |
| Terrebonne, Lachenaie | $695,000 | $3,074 | $123,000 |
| Terrebonne, La Plaine | $520,000 | $2,300 | $92,000 |
| Saint-Jérôme | $540,000 | $2,389 | $95,500 |
| Mirabel | $650,000 | $2,875 | $115,000 |
| Repentigny, Repentigny sector | $598,000 | $2,645 | $105,800 |
| Repentigny, Le Gardeur | $580,000 | $2,566 | $102,600 |
Price source: Centris, third quarter of 2026. Centris publishes Longueuil, Terrebonne and Repentigny by sector only, and two medians cannot be added together. Its “Island of Montreal” line covers the whole agglomeration.
Against median income, where it has been verified. Median total household income was $85,000 in Laval in 2020, according to the 2021 census, and $66,500 in the Montreal agglomeration, according to the City of Montreal’s household profile. The payment on the median single-family home would take up 39.3% of it in Laval ($33,440 ÷ $85,000) and 64.8% on the island ($43,101 ÷ $66,500). For the other five cities, I was unable to check median income at the source at the time of writing: it is therefore not cited, and the last column is there to compare with your own income.
Two limits. These incomes are for 2020, the reference year of the 2021 census, and the City of Montreal advises reading them with caution because of pandemic-related support programs. A median, Centris points out, is “not a reflection of each individual property.”
Condos: the most accessible way in, in figures
Same assumptions, same quarter.
| City or Centris sector | Median price | Payment | Income needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Island of Montreal | $477,000 | $2,110 | $84,400 |
| Laval | $439,999 | $1,946 | $77,900 |
| Longueuil, Vieux-Longueuil | $398,500 | $1,763 | $70,500 |
| Longueuil, Saint-Hubert | $395,000 | $1,747 | $69,900 |
| Terrebonne, Terrebonne sector | $442,000 | $1,955 | $78,200 |
| Saint-Jérôme | $319,250 | $1,412 | $56,500 |
| Mirabel | $462,000 | $2,044 | $81,700 |
| Repentigny, Repentigny sector | $320,000 | $1,415 | $56,600 |
Lachenaie, La Plaine and Le Gardeur have no published quarterly median, for lack of sufficient transactions. In Repentigny, the median is down 15% over one year, on 49 sales: a change to read with caution.
Laval is the only verified line under the threshold. The median condo there takes 27.5% of 2020 median income ($23,355 ÷ $85,000). That leaves $2,145 a year, about $179 a month, for property taxes, energy and condo fees. No official source consulted publishes the median of these costs by city. On the island, the median condo takes up 38.1% of median income.
The price each income allows, at 30%. Reversing the calculation: about $289,000 for $51,200, the median income of renter households in the agglomeration in 2020; $376,000 for $66,500; $480,000 for $85,000; $576,000 for $102,000, the median income of owners in the agglomeration. For the island’s median renter household, the gap with the median condo is more than $185,000.
What will move affordability between now and 2027
Four levers, each with its most recent data. None of them is a forecast; the direction of prices and the timing of rate moves are covered in other articles in the same series.
Rates. The Bank of Canada’s policy rate has been 2.25% since the cut announced on October 29, 2025; the next announcement is scheduled for October 28, 2026. The rate used in the calculation, however, has gone up: 4.17% in April, 4.49% in July. The chartered banks’ 5-year conventional mortgage rate went from 6.09% at the end of September to 6.19% on October 7 and 14.
Prices. In the Montreal CMA, in the third quarter of 2026, APCIQ (the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers) measures a median single-family home at $645,500 (+2%) and a median condo at $435,000 (+2%), with 20,350 properties listed (+17%). In September, inventory was 18% above its ten-year average, “which eases pressure on prices,” according to APCIQ.
New supply. CMHC counts 19,028 housing starts in the CMA from January to September 2026, compared with 19,331 a year earlier; in September alone, 1,266 compared with 2,610.
Incomes. In Quebec, average weekly earnings were $1,256.59 in 2025 and $1,282.62 on average for the months of 2026 published up to July, about 2.1% more. These are Statistics Canada data reported by the Institut de la statistique du Québec (Quebec’s statistics agency).
The only change already set: the welcome tax (droits de mutation) brackets move in 2027 to $64,400 and $322,600. On the basic schedule, that takes about $46 off any purchase over $322,600.
Affordable homes in Quebec in 2027: three calculated scenarios
Three assumptions for the third quarter of 2027, applied to Laval’s median single-family home. Calculations, not predictions.
| Scenario | Rate | Price | Payment | Income needed | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starting point, 2026 | 4.49% | $630,000 | $2,787 | $111,500 | baseline |
| A. Rate one point higher | 5.49% | $630,000 | $3,073 | $122,900 | +10.3% |
| B. Price 5% higher | 4.49% | $661,500 | $2,926 | $117,000 | +5.0% |
| C. Rate half a point lower, price 5% higher | 3.99% | $661,500 | $2,781 | $111,200 | -0.2% |
The changes apply to any property: the island condo would go from $84,400 to $93,100 in income needed in scenario A.
One point of rate weighs twice as much as 5% of price. On Laval’s median house, it adds $287 a month, and a half-point drop cancels out a 5% price increase.
Income, the third lever. Suppose it grows by 2.1%, the pace of earnings cited above. A household that today spends exactly 30% of its income on the payment would go to 32.4% in scenario A, 30.9% in B and 29.3% in C. Only scenario C brings it back under the threshold; with no income increase, it would stay just under, at 29.9%.
Where your own budget stands
Four lines are enough.
- The target price and your actual down payment. Below 20%, the CMHC insurance premium, from 2.80% to 4.00% of the loan depending on the down payment, enters the calculation, and in Quebec the sales tax on the premium cannot be added to the loan. See the 20% down payment myth.
- The payment, at the rate a lender offers you, in the same calculator.
- Property tax, school tax, energy and, for a condo, the fees. Municipal rates are in property taxes in Montreal and Laval.
- The annual total, divided by the household’s gross annual income.
Two benchmarks. Under this article’s assumptions, every $10,000 of price adds about $44 to the monthly payment, or $1,770 in income needed. And 10% more income lowers the ratio by a little over 9%: in Laval, 39.3% becomes 35.8%.
The rate in your file and the amount you can borrow are a matter for your lender or mortgage broker.
Frequently asked questions
What income do you need for a home to be affordable in Laval? In CMHC’s sense and under this article’s assumptions, about $111,500 before tax for the median single-family home, and $77,900 for the median condo, excluding taxes and energy. A different down payment or rate changes the result.
Are there still affordable areas around Montreal? In the table, the lowest incomes needed are in La Plaine ($92,000) and Saint-Jérôme ($95,500) for single-family homes, and in Saint-Jérôme and Repentigny (about $56,500) for condos. The rest depends on your income.
Will homes be more affordable in 2027? No data allows anyone to promise that. The calculation shows what will decide it: one point of rate weighs more than 5% of price, and income has to keep up.
Why 2020 incomes? It is the income reference year of the 2021 census, the source that gives median household income city by city. A higher income today lowers the ratio in the same proportion.
To go further, read the Laval real estate market by sector and the hidden costs of homeownership.
Want to redo this calculation with the price of a specific property and your income? Write to me. I will show you recent sales in the area you have in mind; the rate and the approval are a matter for your lender or mortgage broker. Service in French, English and Arabic.
Georges Matar
Residential Real Estate Broker · RE/MAX DU CARTIER INC.
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