What Factors Influence the Real Estate Market in Quebec?

When the market slows down, every headline names a culprit: interest rates, immigration, construction, jobs. Yet each of these factors that influence the real estate market has an official measure, published by a named body on a known schedule. Here are the eleven to watch, with their latest value as of October 21, 2026 for Quebec, Montreal and Laval.

The factors that influence the real estate market: the table

MIFI: Ministère de l’Immigration, de la Francisation et de l’Intégration (Quebec’s immigration ministry).

The table does not rank the factors. None of the official sources consulted for this article measures the weight of one factor against the others. The order follows a buyer’s file: money, credit, income, population, then supply.

The dates do not line up. The bond yield is from October 20, 2026, the vacancy rate from October 2025: check the Released column before you compare two rows.

Interest rates and lending rules

The policy rate. The Bank of Canada sets it on eight pre-set dates a year. It has stood at 2.25% since the cut announced on October 29, 2025, and all six announcements of 2026 have held it there. The next one is scheduled for October 28, 2026.

Bond yields. In a March 2026 article, Bank of Canada economists point out that yields on long-term government bonds “directly influence mortgage rates,” and that they have stayed high since September 2024 despite the cuts to the policy rate. The path from there to your payment is described in the article on interest rates and the Montreal market.

The stress test. For an uninsured loan from a federally regulated lender, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) requires the borrower to qualify at the higher of two rates: the contract rate plus 2 points, or 5.25%. OSFI reviews this buffer and this floor at least once a year.

The loan-to-income limit. Since each institution’s 2025 fiscal year, OSFI has also capped the volume of new uninsured loans that exceed 4.5 times income. The limit applies to the lender’s portfolio, not to each individual loan. OSFI justifies it by 2020 and 2021, when “low interest rates increased borrowing capacity and put upward pressure on house prices.”

Insured loans. For a loan insured by CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation) to an owner-occupier, the price must be under $1,500,000, and the amortization is 25 years at most, or 30 years for a first-time buyer or a newly built property. The $1.5 million cap and access to 30 years come from the reforms announced by the Department of Finance Canada on September 16, 2024, in force since December 15, 2024.

Jobs and income

Income sets the size of the loan. For an insured loan, CMHC caps the gross debt service (GDS) ratio at 39% and the total debt service (TDS) ratio at 44%, calculated at the higher of the contract rate plus 2 points and 5.25%. At the same rate, a drop in income therefore shrinks the loan you can get. The affordability calculator applies these two ratios and this qualifying rate to your income and your debts.

What the LFS measures. For September 2026, Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey (LFS), released on October 9 by the Institut de la statistique du Québec (ISQ, Quebec’s statistics agency), counts 4,539,300 jobs in Quebec, 49,400 fewer than in August (-1.1%), and an unemployment rate of 6.0%, up 0.4 points.

One month is not a trend. The ISQ points out that these estimates are based on a sample and remain subject to statistical variability. Its release also covers the Montreal census metropolitan area (CMA) and average earnings.

Population and immigration

Population. According to Statistics Canada estimates published by the ISQ, Quebec had 9,067,114 inhabitants on July 1, 2026, compared with about 9,051,000 a year earlier in the same table: some 16,100 more. The 2026 figure is preliminary.

Permanent immigration. Quebec’s immigration plan for 2026, tabled in the National Assembly on November 6, 2025, provides for 45,000 permanent resident admissions, including 28,800 in economic immigration. Section 5 of the Québec Immigration Act (Loi sur l’immigration au Québec) requires a plan every year.

Non-permanent residents. The same day, the Quebec government asked Ottawa to bring their number down to 200,000, with the reduction concentrated “mainly in Montreal and Laval.” According to CMHC, the easing of the rental market in Greater Montreal in 2025 comes from strongly growing supply and slowing demand, and “this slowdown is mainly explained by the decline in the number of non-permanent residents.”

Supply: housing starts and listings

Housing starts. Every month, CMHC counts the dwellings on which construction begins. In the Montreal CMA, from January to September 2026: 19,028, compared with 19,331 a year earlier, including 910 single-detached houses. CMHC attributes the 8% drop in its six-month trend to multi-unit dwellings.

Active listings. This is the number of properties listed for sale on Centris. In the Montreal CMA, APCIQ (the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers) counted 21,793 in September 2026, 20% more than a year earlier; in Laval, 1,728 (+18%). According to APCIQ, the CMA’s inventory is 18% above its average for the past ten years, “which eases the pressure on prices.”

The ratio that links supply to sales. APCIQ divides inventory by the average sales of the last 12 months. Below 8 months of inventory, the market favours sellers; from 8 to 10, it is balanced; above 10, it favours buyers. The reading by price range is in the Laval real estate market by sector.

Rents, taxes and public policy

The rental market. Rent is the other option for a household that is hesitating to buy, and it is the income of a plex. In the Montreal CMA, CMHC measured a vacancy rate of 2.9% in October 2025, compared with 2.1% a year earlier, and an average rent of $1,346 for a two-bedroom unit (+7.2%). That report is still the most recent one online as of October 21, 2026.

Transfer duties. This “welcome tax” (taxe de bienvenue) is paid when you buy. In 2026, the provincial scale applies 0.5% up to $62,900, 1% up to $315,000 and 1.5% above that, on the highest of the price paid, the price stipulated and the market value. For a $500,000 purchase: $5,610.50. A municipality may set a higher rate above $500,000, up to 3%, except Montreal, which is not subject to that cap. In 2027, the thresholds rise to $64,400 and $322,600. The details are in the article on the welcome tax in Quebec.

What real estate market factors do not tell you

None of them gives a price. No row says what a house will be worth next year. The direction of prices and the published forecasts are the subject of a separate article.

They do not act at the same pace. Since 2021, a change in the policy rate takes effect the day after it is announced. A construction project, on the other hand, only acts once it is finished: CMHC writes that the rise in completions, “stemming from the record housing starts of recent years,” helped ease the Montreal rental market in 2025.

Frequently asked questions

What makes house prices go up in Quebec? No official source consulted splits an increase among the factors. Two bodies describe a mechanism: for OSFI, the low rates of 2020 and 2021 increased borrowing capacity and pushed prices up; for APCIQ, inventory above its ten-year average eases the pressure on prices.

Does immigration drive up house prices in Quebec? None of the sources consulted puts a figure on it. CMHC instead links the drop in non-permanent residents to the slowdown in rental demand in Greater Montreal in 2025.

Will housing starts bring prices down? No source consulted measures their effect on resale prices. In the Montreal CMA, 18,118 of the 19,028 dwellings started from January to September 2026 were not single-detached houses.

When do the next figures come out? The policy rate on October 28, 2026, then on December 9; the October LFS on November 6, 2026, according to the ISQ. The immigration plan must be tabled no later than November 1, or within 15 days after proceedings resume if the National Assembly is not sitting.

To go further, read how to read the dated data on the Montreal and Laval market and the limits of a mortgage pre-approval.

Want to read these indicators for your area and your type of property? Write to me. Service in French, English and Arabic.

Georges Matar

Residential Real Estate Broker · RE/MAX DU CARTIER INC.

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