Market Analysis

What the Data Actually Says About the Montreal Real Estate Market in 2025

By Georges Matar · May 19, 2025 · 5 min read

Every week, someone asks me whether it’s a good time to buy or sell in Montreal. And every week, I give the same answer: that depends entirely on the data, not on predictions, not on headlines, and not on what the market did last year.

I have a doctorate in data processing. I have built my practice around analyzing real estate indicators the same way I analyzed research data: methodically, without confirmation bias, and with appropriate humility about what the numbers can and cannot tell us.

Here is what the indicators I track every month actually show.

The 5 Indicators That Matter

1. The Absorption Rate This is the ratio of properties sold versus active listings, expressed as a percentage. Above 25%: seller’s market. Between 15% and 25%: balanced. Below 15%: buyer’s market.

This rate varies significantly by property type and neighbourhood. The city-wide average hides very different realities in specific pockets of Laval versus Rosemont versus Verdun.

2. Days on Market How long does the average property take to sell? A drop in this number signals increasing demand. A rise signals the market is slowing. This is one of the fastest-moving indicators and often signals a shift before prices follow.

3. Sold-to-List Price Ratio Are properties selling above, at, or below their asking price? This ratio tells you immediately whether you are in a negotiation market or a competition market.

4. Bank of Canada Rate Decisions The policy rate directly influences variable mortgage rates. It influences fixed rates indirectly through the bond market, and the two don’t always move in the same direction. I track both.

5. Immigration and Household Formation Data Montreal receives a significant share of Quebec’s immigrant population. Each new household formed creates demand for housing, whether rental or ownership. This is the structural driver that keeps long-term pressure on prices regardless of short-term economic conditions.

What the Current Data Shows (2025)

The Greater Montreal market has gone through three distinct phases since 2020:

2020-2022: Expansion and overheating, driven by historically low interest rates and pandemic-era demand for space.
2022-2023: Correction. The Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate hikes reduced purchasing power significantly and cooled activity.
2024-2025: Gradual recovery. The Bank began cutting rates in 2024. Activity has returned to more normal levels. Prices have stabilized and are trending upward in most segments.

The correction that many predicted would be catastrophic turned out to be a normalization. Properties that sold at inflated prices in 2021 and 2022 corrected 5% to 15% in some segments. They did not collapse 30% or 40%.

What the Media Gets Wrong

I read the real estate headlines every week. Here is the pattern I consistently observe:

“Sales plunge 20%”: usually means sales returned to pre-pandemic norms after an artificial spike
“Prices fall 8%”: after a 35% increase, this is a moderate correction, not a crisis
“Housing bubble in Canada”: some segments are overvalued; the entire market is not one homogeneous bubble

Media incentives favour dramatic headlines. A nuanced analysis of absorption rates by property type and neighbourhood does not generate clicks the same way “CRASH INCOMING” does.

My job is to give you the nuance, because your financial decisions deserve better than a headline.

The Laval Market Specifically

Laval is consistently underestimated in the Montreal investment conversation. Here is what the numbers show:

Price differential: Laval properties are still priced below comparable Montreal island properties, despite offering equivalent or better transit access in many areas.
Vacancy rate: Consistently below 3%, well under the equilibrium level that SCHL identifies as “healthy” for renters (around 3%). For landlords and investors, this means low vacancy risk.
Rental demand: Strong and diverse: families priced out of the island, students, young professionals, and an active immigrant community.
Infrastructure investment: Continued highway and transit improvements keep Laval well-connected to Montreal’s economic core.

Over the past 10 years, well-located Laval properties have performed comparably to many Montreal boroughs, with a better entry price point. That gap is narrowing, which is an argument for acting sooner rather than later.

Why Prices Are Unlikely to Crash Significantly

This is not a prediction. It is a structural analysis.

Three factors put a floor under Montreal and Laval residential prices:

Supply constraint: The amount of buildable land within reasonable distance of Montreal’s core is physically limited. New supply cannot keep pace with demand.

Construction costs: Building costs are 40% to 60% higher than they were in 2019. This creates a cost floor: new properties cannot be profitably built below a certain price, which supports existing inventory values.

Demographic demand: Canada’s immigration targets of 400,000 to 500,000 new permanent residents per year create ongoing household formation demand that the existing housing stock cannot absorb.

Could prices correct another 5% to 15% in certain segments under certain conditions? Yes. Could they collapse 40% the way American markets did in 2008? The structural conditions are very different. That type of crash is not in the data.

The Right Question to Ask

The question “is it a good time to buy?” is the wrong question.

The right questions are:

Is your financial situation stable?
Do you have your down payment plus 3-5% for closing costs?
Do you plan to hold for at least 5 to 7 years?
Are the properties you are looking at priced fairly based on recent comparable sales?

If the answer to all four is yes, the broader market timing matters much less than you think.

The people who waited for “the perfect moment” in 2020 paid 30% to 40% more in 2022. The people who bought “at the wrong time” before any correction have recovered and are ahead. Time in the market, for the right property at a reasonable price, outperforms market timing almost every time.

I publish a regular market analysis of the greater Montreal and Laval real estate market. Contact me if you’d like to discuss what the current data means for your specific situation.